Low temperature to boost wheat output

Agencies NEW DELHI, SINGAPORE

 THE country's wheat production in 2008-09 may cross last year's record of 78.4 million tonnes if low temperature persists and there are brief spells of rains in the northern region during February-end, says an agricultural scientist. The amount of rainfall in February will be critical for the outcome of the season.
    There are bright chances that wheat production may cross 78.4 million tonnes if there is at least 2 cm rain by February-end or in the first week of March, said directorate of wheat research jag shoran. Following a decline in wheat acreage, the government expects wheat production at 77.7 million tonnes in the current year down by 7,00,000 tonnes from previous year.
    Winter spell helps in lowering temperature providing a perfect climate for the growth of wheat. So far, the northern wheat belt comprising Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan have received two rains due to winter western disturbance, he said adding that one more spell during the month-end would help harvest more wheat. According to the meteorological department, there are good possibilities of few spells during the month-end or the beginning of March. Western disturbance had caused rains during February 9-11 in the region.
    Meanwhile, India — the world's second-biggest wheat producer — is likely to export the grain for the first time in 6 years after bumper harvests boosted stocks, said Singapore-based Agrocorp International MD Vijay Iyengar. The country will harvest about 76.5 million tonnes of wheat this year, just 1.6% below official estimates, he said.
    "They will have to export around 1 million tonnes as they have had very good procurement last year and they need to take care of the new crop," Iyengar added. India last exported wheat in 2003-04 and imported the commodity for two years from 2006.
    The nation's entry into the world wheat market could further depress prices which have fallen nearly 60% to $5.30-, per bushel since peaking on the global benchmark Chicago Board of Trade in March. The wheat market has been pressured by rising global supplies. The government has banned the export of rice and wheat in the past two years because of fears of dwindling stocks and rising prices ahead of general elections due by the middle of this year. India's inflation has fallen to 4.4% from a peak of just under 13% in August, while record harvests of wheat and rice have prodded New Delhi to partially ease some curbs on commodity trade.
    Wheat stocks with procurement agency Food Corporation of India stood at 18.2 million tonnes at end of December against the buffer requirement of 8.2 million tonnes.
    The government has estimated the country's wheat stocks at the time of harvest of new crop on April 1 at 7.2 million tonnes compared with the buffer norms of 4 million tonnes.
    "The stocks are very comfortable and if the procurement is good then the government may take a view to open export," said Atul Chaturvedi, president of Adani Enterprises.