The Indian economy has cruised to a high growth path and for the third successive year in 2007-08, the spurt in real gross domestic product is expected to approximate to 9 per cent. 
But, there is little to celebrate in the crucial farm sector. Agriculture continues to be a laggard. Going by the latest official projections, gross domestic product (GDP) originating from agriculture and allied activities is slated to decelerate to 2.6 per cent from the previous year’s 3.8 per cent. As far as this segment of the economy is concerned, inclusive growth remains only a slogan.
Perhaps, things may change for the better - and very soon. If the Union finance minister’s remarks are to be construed as straws in the wind, agriculture may receive an extra emphasis in terms of policies and resource allocations in the budget for 2008-09.
The next fiscal marks the second year of the Eleventh Five Year Plan. In the first year, we have missed the bus with the farm sector proving to be an under-performer. So, if this sector is to grow at the targeted 4 per cent per year, extra efforts are clearly called for in the remaining years of the Eleventh Plan.
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The intent is there, but the big question is, will this intent be translated into reality, given the Centre’s financial crunch, the competing claims from other segments and the intractable nature of several heads of non-plan expenditure.
However, there is no mistaking the case for renewed focus on agriculture. Production has clearly not kept pace with the increase in population.
According to the quantum indices released by the Central Statistical Organisation, the net domestic product (NDP) has risen from 104.1 in 2000-01 to 158.8 in 2006-07 on a sustained basis. But, in case of the farm sector, the spurt has been very meagre - from 99.2 to 117.6 - and accompanied by a high degree of volatility.
The share of agriculture in overall GDP has declined from more than 33 per cent in 1990-91 to as low as 16.7 per cent in 2006-07. As development proceeds, the primary sector loses its primacy, but in
There are other disquieting aspects of the crisis that dogs this sector. In pulses and edible oils, imports have become deeply entrenched. In rice and wheat, the momentum has flagged; the government is obliged to undertake large-scale purchases of wheat from overseas.
Even in 2007-08, the latest data reveal, foodgrains production has peaked to 219.32 million tonnes (mt). Still, the achievement is nothing to crow about since the harvest in 2003-04 was 213 mt. In wheat, there is likely to be a marginal decline of 74.81 mt and in rice, only a fractional increase at 94.08 mt.
The implications of a stagnant farm economy are many, and grave. Our food security is under threat; the livelihood of millions in the rural heartland is affected. As demand-supply imbalances mount, shortages queer the pitch for inflation. In this scenario inflationary expectations tend to build up.
Investment in farm sector is important; but, instead of action here, we have allowed the subsidy bill to burgeon. Over a period of 1991-95 to 2001-03, investment as a proportion of GDP in agriculture has remained static at 6.69 per cent, even as the share of subsidy has risen from 5.17 per cent to7.42 per cent, according to the Planning Commission. If even a third of the subsidy outgo had been diverted to capital spending, Indian agriculture would be much different now from what it is.
The other elements of the strategy to pave the way for a second green revolution should be doubling of the irrigation cover, introduction of high-yielding varieties suited to various agro-climatic regions and toning up of the extension agency.
One budget may not work amiracle. But, if the ensuing one sets in motion a process to revitalise our agriculture, it would qualify as a watershed.
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