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Oil falls below $76 on stronger dollar

OPEC wary about oversupply, fragile economy Reuters NEW YORK  OIL prices fell $1 to below $76 a barrel on Friday, pressured by a stronger dollar which outweighed reaction from better-than-expected US jobs data. US crude futures fell $1 to $75.46 at 1:31 p.m. Brent crude fell 82 cents to $77.52. The dollar soared against the yen and the euro, making dollar-denominated commodities like crude more expensive for holders of other currencies, helping pressure prices.      Investors have been looking to economic data for signs of global economic recovery and a potential rebound in energy demand. US stocks sharply pared gains as the rising U.S. dollar weighed on commodities and risk appetite ebbed. In earlier trading, crude rose to near $78 a barrel after the U.S. Labor Department reported that employers cut only 11,000 jobs last month, the fewest in nearly two years. The jobless rate edged down to 10 percent.      But US unemployment remains high and energy fundamentals in the world's largest energy consumer are weak, keeping analysts skeptical about crude's upside potential. "Unemployment at 10 percent isn't an improvement, no matter how many times you slice it. The early rally here is being tempered by considerations of the overhang in petroleum supplies," said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. "In any case, the oil market is looking at the dollar and its movement at this point could likely lead to a test of crude support at $75," McGillian added.      Olivier Jakob with Petromatrix said high oil inventory levels in the United States, especially at the delivery point of U.S. crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, have been putting more pressure on U.S. oil prices than on North Sea benchmark Brent crude. Oversupply and the fragile state of the global economy will be among the issues facing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries when it meets on Dec 22. Analysts expect no change in OPEC's output policy.      OPEC's Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri told Reuters on Thursday the group should be cautious as it needs to balance signs of economic recovery and abundant supplies. He said oil inventories remained above their five-year average and there were 165 million barrels of crude and products floating at sea, equal to almost two days' global demand and more than some estimates.      In terms of prices, the current band of $70-$80 is satisfactory, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters in Cairo. "Right now you see the price is okay between $70 and $80, it's close to the target we set, it's almost $75 — it's good," Naimi said, referring to the $75 level that he has said suited producers and consumers.

India :Value buying in realty is back

2BHK preferred format, sub Rs 40 lakh segment attracting home buyers Anand Rawani and Neha Dewan NEW DELHI  VALUE buying is back in business. Realty buyers are primarily looking at the sub-40 lakh category to fulfill their dream home aspirations and it is the 2BHK which has emerged as the preferred format for buyers in these times.      SundayET spoke to a cross section of real estate developers, brokers and bankers to assess the ground situation on the kind of housing format and home loan size that is now gaining maximum flavour.      Most developers agree that the current hotselling flavour of the market is apartments ranging between Rs 25 to 40 lakh. According to Rajeev Talwar, group executive director, DLF, it is primarily the 2 and 3 BHKs which are finding buyers. "As far as prices are concerned, the sub-40 lakh is selling well in Bangalore. We have sold 1,200 units in Bangalore since the beginning of February this year. Similarly in Delhi we have sold 2,500 units since the beginning of the Financial Year. We will be coming up with more affordable housing projects across locations over the next three years."      Unitech official pegs it a little lower. As per a Unitech spokesperson, the sub-30 lakh category is faring well in these times. "We have sold flats in Noida, Gurgaon, Chennai, Mohali, Kolkata and Hyderabad in this range. It's mainly the 2 and 3 BHK with sizes between 800-1,000 sq ft respectively. In fact, in the first six months of this year, we have sold over 8 million sq ft of apartments, out of which 40% is in the price range of sub-30 lakh," he said.      Others feel that a combination offered with a study space is working out as an appealing factor. Says Rita Dixit, executive director, Jaypee Greens, "Options in the range of Rs 25-Rs 40 lakh are gathering momentum. Apartments which offer 2 and 3BHK with study space work out well. These typically range between 1,050-1,400 sq ft. Our projects offering such options, such as Classic and Kosmos, are bringing good business."      Not merely the property developers but even realty brokers echoed similar sentiments. Pankaj Jain, executive director of Realistic Realtors, a Delhi-based real estate brokerage firm said, "The 35 to 50 lakh segment is seeing bulk demand across locations. Demand for 2BHK with size ranging from 1,200 to 1,500 sq ft is high as it is an ideal size for a nuclear family."      The home loan enquiries coming to banks bear testimony to the market trend. According to Renu Sud Karnad, Jt MD, HDFC, "The segment where we are seeing a huge demand is in the price range of Rs 30-50 lakh in metros and bigger towns and around Rs 20-25 lakh in smaller towns."      Similarly, in the case of Bank of Rajasthan, where a predominant number of customers are from rural, semi-urban and urban centres, the average ticket size is below Rs 20 lakh. As per the loan portfolio of home loan of Bank of Rajasthan, the sub-Rs 20 lakh loans category constitute almost 95% of the total home loan portfolio.  BULK  DEMAND  The current hotselling flavour of the market is apartments ranging between Rs 25 to 40 lakh  Demand for 2BHK with sizes ranging from 1,200 to 1,500 sq ft is high  Banks seeing home loan disbursement in the range of Rs 30-50 lakh in metros and around Rs 20-25 lakh in smaller towns

Gold, silver glitter at all-time high

Yellow Metal At Rs 18,220, Silver At Rs 30,140 New Delhi: The dream run of gold and silver is continuing. Price of gold closed above Rs 18,000 per 10 gram on Wednesday in Indian markets, after crossing $1200 per ounce in the international market on Tuesday.      In the Mumbai market, standard gold price closed at record Rs 18,220. In Delhi, price of pure gold (99.9 purity) spurted by Rs 270 per 10 gram to close at Rs 18,310. Price of silver ready (.999 fineness) rose by Rs 690 per kilo to Rs 30,140 as against Rs 29,450 on Tuesday.      At the same time, price of silver has also crossed Rs 30,000 per kg —an all- time high— on Wednesday. Despite rising prices, bullion traders said, there is a good demand from investors as they expect prices to rise further. A senior merchant banker said the apprehension over weakening of dollar and fresh demand from central banks world over are adding shine to the precious metals.      The gold price in the international market is quoting at a record high of $1212 per ounce. Silver has also touched an all-time high of $19 per ounce. In the developed markets like Japan, Europe and the US, large funds are investing in gold in the expectation of further increase in prices.      The expectation of price rise got further credence from the decision of RBI and Sri Lankan central bank to buy gold from IMF. RBI's decision to buy 200 tonnes of gold in the second fortnight of October at an average price of $1,045 per ounce has made it richer by $1.07 billion.      Investors have taken it as a trend. If more central banks buy gold to diversify their reserve portfolio, prices of the yellow metal will move up further. In the last one year, investment in gold has yielded a return of around 35%, which is very attractive, considering most of the other assets have depreciated in the last one year. On Wednesday, investment interest in gold remained firm, with SPDR Gold Trust's holdings, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose further. However, with rising prices, interest of retail buyers declined in gold. A bullion merchant said sales of gold ornaments and jewellery have reduced significantly.      However, some analysts cautioned that if price continues to rise, the central banks might start selling the yellow metal, leading to sharp fall in prices. So, small investors should not invest their large part of savings in gold.

The Overbought Gold Price Becomes More Overbought, and Climbs Still

Gold Price Close Today : 1164.70
Change: 17.90 or 1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.603
Change: 17 cents or 0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1457.30
Change: 9.90 or 0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 369.25
Change: 4.30 or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.61
Change: 0.957 or 1.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,318.16
Change: -14.28 or -0.1%

US Dollar Index: 75.13
Change: -0.35 or -0.5% 

Whoa. Overbought becomes more overbought, and climbs still. Makes me get very quiet and thoughtful.

I woke up very early this morning, while the birds were still asleep at 4:30 and
the GOLD PRICE already had surmounted $1186. Silver was $18.85. Gold indicators become more overbought day by day, but gold keeps on steadily advancing. TheSILVER PRICE RSI and MACD indicators can stand to climb still more. In euros the gold price verges on breaking out upside through E790. Gold in Yen has long ago broken out above Y97,180 and today closed Y103,800.

A word about "overbought." I remember much of the decade of the 1990s watching the Dow grow more and more overbought. It was impossible to gauge. It would form bearish rising wedges, then break out to the upside. When a market is riding a bull, there's just no telling where it will stop.

Interesting, too, that the gold's bullish behaviour is driving otherwise sane analysts crazy. Analysts whom I thought understood that only monetary demand drives gold's price crazy are now falling back on jewellery demand, as if gold's price was determined by the demand for earrings or anklets. Help -- gold is not oil.

Sure, some of the speculative fever that the Fed has spawned with its low interest rate-run the printing press policies has slopped over into gold, but somebody is not thinking clearly. This is a THIRD wave up, unpredictable, surging like a full moon tide. Ride it till it falls, then when it gets up, mount back up and ride it till it falls again. Point is, overbought can get a lot more overbought still. 

I don't think a one of y'all would complain if I completely miscalled gold or silver's movements, but you let me get one Latin verb or modifier wrong, and y'all are on me like a duck on a June bug. Okay, I was wrong. Technically it should be "res ipsA loquitur," because res is feminine & so ipse -a -um must agree with it in gender.

The US DOLLAR INDEX peaked Friday at 75.85 and has sunk ever since. Today once again the dollar bounced along 74.90 support, the bottom of the trading range (74.946 low). The dollar may be turning up, may be preparing to rally, but at the same rate as a glacier speeding through the Alps. Dollar Index flat-lined all day 'twixt 75.095 and 75.15. Today the scrofulous dollar closed at 75.127, down 35.3 basis points.

The Dow jumped up early this morning and stayed level to lower the rest of the day. Slowly, slowly, as always, stocks are rolling over downward. Still may see a spike to
to 11000.

In spite of the Dow's continuing gains, the Dow in Gold Dollars is being crushed. Today it closed at G$183.13 (8.859 oz), moving toward the bottom of its range and another waterfall.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.